In range to win

Just six pounds separated first from 12th place coming into the final round at Bull Shoals, making it one of the closest Elite events in history. And since six pounds is about the weight of a tournament big bass here, all 12 anglers have at least a puncher’s chance of pulling out the win.


If BASSTrakk is accurate, Jason Christie is leading the tournament right now. He was 11th going into the finals, and if he wins it will be the biggest Day 4 comeback in Elite Series history — by a wide, wide, wide margin.


The biggest comeback so far came on the Mississippi River in 2009. Kevin Short was sixth going into the last day and went on to win the tournament. Christie would blow that mark out of the water even though he and Short would have overcome about the same deficit in terms of pounds and ounces. Short trailed Billy McCaghren by 4-15; Christie trailed Casey Scanlon by 5-6 to start the day. What makes Christie comeback extra surprising is that he had several more anglers to leapfrog to gain the lead. Eleventh place is truly "coming out of nowhere."


The leader going into the finals has a huge advantage. After more than seven years of Elite events, the leader after Day 3 goes on to win 63 percent of the time. The first or second place angler wins 85 percent of the time. You can count on two hands the number of times an angler in third place or further back has overcome the deficit and gone on to win. So, if Christie can do it, it’s a rare thing and a big deal. 

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