There are really just three anglers on the water today with a realistic shot at victory — Mark Davis, Chris Lane and Aaron Martens. Two others — Derek Remitz and Kotaro Kiriyama — are extreme long shots. The rest are, in my opinion at least, out of it because they trail the leader (Davis) by more than the weight of what is likely to be the tournament's biggest bass (about 5-13).
It's called "Ken's Comeback Rule" ... because I thought of it first. You can use it anytime you're dealing with a five-bass limit and have one day of competition left.
How often does it hold up? Well, absolutely every time so far in Elite Series history. It's a very strong indicator of who's in the hunt and who's out of it.
But what about Jason Christie's big comeback on Bull Shoals earlier this year? Yep, he was within striking distance— within the weight of a tournament big bass on that venue — so the rule holds even then. Bull Shoals was just a tournament with a remarkably close top 12. What was most remarkable about Christie's win was not the deficit he overcame (other anglers have overcome bigger deficits to win), but that he leapfrogged 10 other anglers. That's never happened before in the Elite Series, and it will probably be a long time before it happens again.