Day One on Douglas: A look at the numbers

You can find out quite a bit about what's happening on the water by reading our tournament coverage from Douglas Lake. Still, it's early and the anglers aren't giving up very much in the way of details. What may be more telling are the numbers coming from the tournament. Take a look.

It's just the second time that Aaron Martens has led the first day of an Elite Series event. The first came in 2008 when he led the opening round on Falcon Lake and went on to finish fourth. Martens has led twice before on Day Two —Falcon and Lake Guntersville in 2009, where he went on to win.

Martens is a strong tournament closer. When he has a lead, he rarely lets it get away. Three times he's led an Elite event, and he won two of those tournaments. The only one he lost was Falcon, where he and Byron Velvick had a memorable confrontation on the water in the final round.

In the last five Elite Series tournaments, the Day Two leader has gone on to win every time.

Ninety-two of the 99 Elite anglers limited on Day One at Douglas. That's pretty good, but not nearly a record. In 2007, all 108 anglers in the field limited on Day One at California's Clear Lake.

Limits are the norm in Elite competition. Douglas Lake marks the 61st tournament in Elite Series history, and the average Elite angler brings 4.57 bass to the scales each competition day. The best at catching limits are Kevin VanDam (4.8894), Martens (4.8693), Todd Faircloth (4.8603), Michael Iaconelli (4.8391), Gerald Swindle (4.8294), Kevin Wirth (4.8153) and Skeet Reese (4.8000).

Some of the younger sticks, like Ott DeFoe (4.9714) and Keith Combs (4.9706) have been impressive but with much shorter track records.

Fifty-three of the 99 anglers in this year's Elite Series have limited every day they've been on the water. That number will dwindle quickly as the weather warms, the fishing gets tougher and the schedule moves to waters with reputations for being stingy with their bass. Only six anglers have ever limited each day they competed for an entire Elite season.

Bobby Lane has the longest current streak of consecutive limits. With his catch on Day One at Douglas, Lane has now limited 31 consecutive competition days. Only 24 other anglers have ever reached that mark. The longest such streak is 57 consecutive limits by Kevin VanDam in 2008-09. Lane already has the second longest streak with 47 straight (2008-09). Only eight anglers have reached 40 or more in a row.

Brent Chapman has a chance to make some history, too. He's on a string of three straight top 12 finishes that will end this week unless he can make some magic today and Saturday. Chapman is currently tied for 55th with lots of ground to make up, but it could happen. Skeet Reese has the record for most consecutive top 12 finishes with six.

And none other than Kevin VanDam has a chance to tie his own Elite Series record with 16 consecutive top 50 (in the money) finishes. He'll need to step on the gas, too. He's currently tied with Chapman at 55th, but that's less than half a pound off the pace to make the cut and earn another check. KVD is the best in the business at making adjustments as tournaments progress. No one should bet against him on Day Two this week.

So, what are the odds of Martens hanging on to win? Actually, they're pretty good. Not only is he a strong finisher, but the Day One leader goes on to win just over 28 percent of all Elite events. Naturally, as the tournament progresses, that number gets higher. The Day Two leader wins 47 percent of the time, and the Day Three leader closes it out 65 percent of the time.

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