There's a story on our home page asking if this tournament is Brent Chapman's to lose. Of course it's his tournament to lose — he has the lead! Besides, the leader after two days goes on to win 46 percent of the time. Leading after three days is, of course, even more predictive. The Day Three leader goes on to win 64 percent of the time. So, whoever's in the lead after today's weigh-in is far and away the most likely angler to win the tournament. Day Three leaders only get overtaken about a third of the time.
We can already tell that this will be trying day when it comes to getting information on the water. Steve Wright blogged a little while ago that Brent Chapman has caught a couple of keepers. Chapman is less than a mile from the take-off. We can see him with binoculars. But as far as the GPS trackers on his boat, he might as well be in another area code. Nothing has showed up. As it is, we have him with a couple of keepers. Cliff Pace has a couple as well and they are virtually tied for the overall weight lead.
Looks like the 2012 AOY race will be one of musical chairs. We've had a lead change after every event. Current tournament leader Brent Chapman is now in the driver's seat and should remain so at least until the next stop at the Mississippi River later this month. A lead change after each of the first five tournaments hasn't happened since 2008, when there was a change after every tournament until the ninth. KVD won it that year, kicking off his string of four in a row ... and counting.
Photographer James Overstreet and I have joined a dozen other boats with observers of Day Two leader Brent Chapman. He already had one bass in the livewell and we saw him add another at 6:55. Neither is much more than a keeper. But Overstreet has spent time observing Chapman each of the last two days, and he reports Chapman has been whacking bass all day long. Chapman mentioned at the weigh-in yesterday that the thermocline in this area is right at 30 feet deep and the bass are holding as close to it as possible.
Some say already that this is Brent Chapman's tourney to lose, but the other side insists it's too early to tell.
More photos from the water on Day Two of the 2012 Toledo Bend Battle.
Toledo Bend playing out as part-comedy, part-tragedy, and all suspense for Elite Series anglers.
Check out a behind-the-scenes glimpse of the pros preparing to weigh in on Day Two.
Kansas' Brent Chapman gets two-for-one results on Toledo Bend