Although other Bucket D anglers have better past histories on Oneida – 25th, John Murray; 26th, Rick Morris; 32nd, Ish Monroe – my gut is telling me to pick Dustin Wilks.
At 70th in AOY points, Wilks is among numerous anglers who must win here in order to classify for the 2013 Classic. In his two Elite Series events on Oneida, he has fared well, placing fourth in 2008 and 32nd in 2009. At 2.7 percent ownership, he's a good value.
Still, Monroe might be the best bet. Having already qualified for the Classic with his win on Okeechobee, he won't be under the same kind of pressure as will Wilks, Murray (81st in AOY race) and Morris (58th, AOY). On the other hand, Monroe is the second-most-picked angler in Bucket D, at 16.5 percent. If you're above the 90th percentile in Fantasy points, he is the safe pick.
Murray and Morris are higher risk picks, at 2.3 and 4.7 percent ownership. A Top 12 could possibly qualify Morris for his fifth Classic, so the motivation – and pressure – will be high.
Steer clear of fan favorite Brandon Palaniuk this week. At 40.8 percent ownership, you won't make much of a move against the field with him, even if he performs well. Secondly, BP often follows a high finish with a low finish. In the last tournament, he was runner-up.