2010 Elite Series Postseason #2 Alabama River - Montgomery, AL, Jul 30 - 31, 2010

2010 AOY Playoff: Do the math

Can it get any closer? Well, yes it could, actually. But it's darn close now, and the drama is filled with some compelling characters.

Skeet Reese

MONTGOMERY, Ala. — The postseason is crazy. Not only does it shake up the Toyota Tundra Bassmaster Angler of the Year standings, changing everything we thought we knew about the race, but with just one day of fishing left there are still 11 anglers who could win the title.

 That's right ... 11.

 It's true that the odds are astronomical for some of the anglers to win — the standings would basically have to flip on this final day — but it's still a possibility, however remote.

 Do the math!

 Going into the last day of the postseason, only Tommy Biffle has been completely eliminated from AOY contention. The rest of the field has a chance, though for many it's a slim one.

 Here's the most extreme example:

 If Derek Remitz (currently 11th in the race) can make the comeback of all comebacks and win on the Alabama River, and if the AOY leaderboard gets stood on its head, Remitz is your 2010 AOY. It's enough to offer hope to just about anybody.

 So what are the odds of the AOY standings being turned on their head? Well, going into the tournament, before anyone had boated a fish, they were roughly 1 in 479,001,600 (seriously!).

 Now, of course, they're not nearly that good since five of the top six anglers in the race hold the top five spots in the Alabama River standings. That would move the odds to something worse than several billion to one. (Put a dollar on it for me!)

 Realistically, only Skeet Reese, Kevin VanDam, Aaron Martens, Edwin Evers and Russ Lane launch this morning with anything more than a prayer of winning AOY. The rest of the field will be grinding it out, hoping to move up a few places in the standings and pick up some extra AOY prize money.

 But we can dream, right?

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