2014 Bassmaster Elite at Lake Dardanelle Lake Dardanelle - Russellville, AR, May 15 - 18, 2014

Who has a real chance to win?

6:26 am CDT, May 18, 2014 | By Ken Duke

It's unrealistic to think everyone in the finals has a legitimate chance to win the tournament. The numbers will tell you that's not true. The best tool there is for determining who's within striking distance of taking home a trophy is what I call "Ken's Comeback Rule" (I came up with it, so I got to name it). It works like this: If you're fishing a three- or four-day (or longer) tournament with a five bass daily creel limit and you trail by more than the weight of what is likely to be the tournament's biggest bass, you're out of it. At Dardanelle, where the big bass is going to be around 7 pounds, you'd better be within 7 pounds going into the final round if you want to have any chance of winning. To come back from farther than that would require something crazy like the leader being disqualified or something like that. With that said, who has any kind of shot to win today? Just the top seven or eight anglers. Everyone else is pretty much out of it when it comes to getting the big blue trophy.

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