2014 A.R.E. Truck Caps Bassmaster Elite at Cayuga Lake
Cayuga Lake - Union Springs, NY, Aug 21 - 24, 2014

Amazing optimism

2:39 pm EDT, Aug 21, 2014 | By Ken Duke

Local expert Jim Root is predicting big numbers for Cayuga this week. He says weights are running high on the lake and that the winner will break 100 pounds. Mr. Root certainly knows the water better than me, but I'll be amazed if anyone comes within 15 pounds of that mark. Two years ago — at almost the same time of year (though I understand weather patterns have been different in 2014) — Pete Gluszek won the Bass Pro Shops Northern Open on Cayuga with 56-1. He averaged 3-12 per fish. Assuming that the fishing has gotten quite a bit better and that this Elite field is quite a bit stronger, let's jack up the average bass weight for the winner to 4-4 (a full half pound) and give him limits all four days (the winner will almost certainly limit all four days). That gives the winner 85 pounds on the nose ... and that's probably being generous. To hit 100 pounds, the winner has to average 5 pounds per fish — a third bigger than Gluszek's average. In 2012, the entire field did not catch enough 5-pounders to put together a 100 pound catch! And Mr. Root expects someone to break the century mark?! The fishing on Cayuga is likely to be good, but it's hard to imagine that it will be that good ... even for the best anglers in the world. One hundred pounds seems wildly optimistic — at least from the perspective of a guy (me) looking at the numbers.

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