To apply Ken's Comeback Formula (KCF) to the tournament today, we start with the leader's weight going into the final round. Brent Chapman is in first place with 59 pounds, 4 ounces. On Day 1, Kelly Jordon caught the biggest bass weighed in so far. It was 6 pounds, 4 ounces. When you subtract 6-4 from 59-4, you get 53-0. Everyone with that weight or better going into the finals has a chance to win. For anyone outside that range, I stand by my earlier statement: It would take a miracle.
So who's in range? Well, it starts with the leader, Brent Chapman. The leader naturally has the biggest edge, and 61 percent of Day 3 leaders go on to win. Next in line is AOY frontrunner Edwin Evers. He's a little more than a pound back and very much within range of the win. Steve Kennedy has 55 pounds and is 4-4 behind Chapman, so he's in range. Alton Jones is fourth with 53-14 — 5-6 out. Behind him is Bobby Lane with 51-0. Lane is more than eight pounds off the pace.
According to KCF, only the top four anglers coming into today's competition have a chance of winning. I won't defend the formula except to say that it's never failed in the entire history of the Elite Series.
Another reason to put your money on the top four anglers is that the top four going into the finals have won 94 percent of all Elite events. Only four times has angler outside the top four gone on to win, and half of those times were in the last two tournaments.
Next we'll talk about what constitutes a "miracle."