So who really has a chance to win this tournament? Well, it's almost never as wide open as some would have you believe. I think even the anglers sometimes have an unrealistic idea of how far back is too far back to make a run and win a tournament.
The basic guideline is this — and I call it Ken's Comeback Formula — if you're going into the final day and you trail by more than the weight of a daily big bass, you're too far back to win. It would take a miracle!
What's that you say? "The last two Elite events were won by anglers in 11th and seventh place going into the last round!" You say, "Big comebacks are not only possible, there's an epidemic of them happening right now!"?
Well, maybe. While it's true that Jason Christie at Bull Shoals and Skeet Reese at West Point pulled off the biggest come-from-behind victories in Elite Series history (by place), they were both within the range of Ken's Comeback Formula. In fact, every Elite winner in history was within the range of the Formula.
More on who has a chance to win here with my next post.