A look inside Ish Monroe’s 2012 win shows why anything is possible at Lake Okeechobee. From the outside, it appears Monroe coasted with a wire-to-wire victory that began with a 34-pound, 5-ounce limit on Day 1 and ended with a four-day total of 108-5. Chris Lane was second with 95-9, a margin of 12 pounds, 12 ounces. Easy peazy, right?
On Day 3 Monroe, who started with a 13-pound, 11-ounce lead, caught a decent limit weighing 18-2. Lane caught 31-3 and closed the gap to a mere 10 ounces going into the final day.
Look at it this way: If Chris Lane could cut a 13-pound, 11-ounce deficit to a mere 10 ounces on one day in 2012, anything is possible today, during a week where Okeechobee has actually fished better than it did in 2012.
If you really dig into another set of numbers, you’ll further understand why the daily standings can be so volatile at The Big O. It’s that big bass factor coupled with a relatively small average bass caught. In a comparison of the fish caught the first two days at Tennessee’s Cherokee Lake two weeks ago and the first two days here, Cherokee – primarily a smallmouth bass fishery – held a slight lead over Okeechobee. The average bass weighed-in was 2.82 pounds at Cherokee and 2.78 at Okeechobee, based on the two-day totals.
Keep in mind the multiple 7-, 8- and 9-pound bass weighed-in at Okeechobee the first two days, and the fact that the average still got dragged down to 2.78. Almost all of the 20-plus-pounds bags so far in the tournament have included at least one, if not two of those “average” fish. So, yes, a 40-pound bag is well within the realm of possibility.
That’s why no lead is safe here – the lunker factor. On most lakes, Timmy Horton would be safe with a 8-pound, 10-ounce lead over second place going into the final day. This isn’t one of those.
Below is an updated comparison that includes three-day totals from the first two Elite Series tournaments of the season.
Note: The Day 3 totals, with only 51 anglers weighing-in, bumped Okeechobee’s average from slightly below Cherokee, after two days, to slightly above.
| Cherokee | Okeechobee | |
| Bass weighed-in | 1,100 | 1,322 |
| Total weight | 3,112-2 | 3,796-14 |
| Ave. bass weighed-in | 2.83 lbs. | 2.87 lbs. |
| Big bag | 20-11 | 31-3 |
| Big bass | 5-5 | 9-5 |
| 12th place | 46-3 | 54-2 |
| 25th place | 29-7 | 31-15 |
| 50th place | 25-4 | 28-0 |
| 75th place | 20-0 | 23-7 |