Last time we covered a new statistic that I call Daily Catch Ratio (or DCR). I listed the best and worst anglers from the Elite Series for Day One and Day Two. Now let's take a look at who slipped the most from Day One to Day Two of the 2010 Elite Series season. The number represents the percentage drop between the two days over the full regular season of eight events.
2010 Elite Series — Biggest fall from Day One to Day Two
All the advantages that Mark Davis was reaping from his strong Day One starts were going right out the window on the second day when he fell back 20 percent relative to the rest of the field. But take a look at Tim Horton; he was sixth best on Day One in 2010 (1.2355), but worst in the entire field on Day Two. His performance slipped nearly 40 percent from one day to the next! No wonder he missed the Classic.
And Tim (I'm talking to you now because I like you), you haven't beaten this problem yet. It's still going on in 2011. You're very strong on the first day (55 percent better than the average angler), but you're struggling on the second (catching only two-thirds of what the average Elite angler is bringing to the scales).
Here's hoping you can turn that around!
Here are the 2010 Elite anglers who turned things up a notch and were much better on Day Two:
2010 Elite Series — Biggest improvement from Day One to Day Two
Where were you guys on Day One?
And who was the steadiest angler in the Elite Series for 2010 — the guy with the most consistent Daily Catch Ratios from the first day to the second? It was rock steady Kevin Wirth, whose catch ratio varied by just 7/10,000. That's consistency!
In the final analysis, it looks like the guys who are the steadiest are also the most (and least) successful. After all, if you're catching them at about the same rate on each of the first two days, you're either really on them (and going to do well) or you're struggling.
Every competitor out there is trying to put together as many solid and consistent days as possible. The roller coaster approach is interesting, but ultimately fatal — or at least debilitating. You can play with that kind of fire for a while, but eventually it's going to burn you.
Just ask Tim Horton.
Ken Duke is the editor of Bassmaster.com and the author of two books on bass fishing: Bass Forever with Glen Lau (www.whitefishpress.com) and The Bass Fishing Vault (www.WhitmanVaultBooks.com). Look for new installments of "The Final Analysis" every Tuesday and Thursday on Bassmaster.com.